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Impact Player Report: WR Steve Smith

Aug 25 2008, 09:12 AM

Contributed by: Dan Duff
 

Average Staff Ranking: 9.67 (non-ppr), 9.00 (ppr)
Average Draft Position (ADP): 31.1
2008 Stat Projection: 88 receptions, 1,144 receiving yards, 10 TDs

Steve Smith is one of the biggest teases in fantasy sports. He has the potential to take over any game at any time, and the talent to finish the 2008 season as the top wide receiver. However, he has a history of burning owners who draft him too high, and rewarding the owners who take a chance when his stock is down. In 2003, Smith (his third year, of course, adding fuel to the third year groupie fire) broke out. He finished 88-1,110-7, and had the look of the Next Great Thing. The following year, fantasy players targeted him as a top-five WR, and he rewarded them for their efforts . . . by playing one game all season.

The folks who drafted him high in ’03 swore never to make the same mistake again. Owners shied away from him coming off a broken leg, wondering if his speed was gone. He was available in many leagues as a WR2, and drafters who selected him did so considering him a risk. With expectations tempered, he responded by having the best season of any fantasy WR, exceeding 100 catches and 1,500 yards while scoring 13 times, including one on a run.

Since then, while Smith has done well, he has not approached the gaudy numbers of 2005. His catch mark is hovering in the 80s, and his yardage has been over the 1,000 mark, but not by much. His scoring is off too, with both season TD counts in the single digits. Once again, he is slipping into the second tier of fantasy WR rankings, so once again he should confound the experts and throw up a monster year.

Except, of course, he let his temper get the best of him, and earned a two-game suspension to start the season.

The two games may not sound like a lot, but it is a ton in the fantasy world. Many leagues have a 12-game regular season, so Smith loses 18% of his pre-playoff value. Teams who draft Steve Smith as their WR1 may find themselves regretting giving away those first two games, especially if it leads to missing the playoffs by a single win.

On the other hand, Smith has come up big when he has been motivated before, and he will certainly be motivated by the suspension, if for no other reason than to show up John Fox for suspending him in the first place. Fox’s Super Bowl appearance is now five years in the rear-view mirror, and his seat, while not quite hot, is beginning to get uncomfortably warm. Imagine the scene in Carolina if the Panthers go 0-2 to start the season, and then miss the playoffs by a game. Envision Steve Smith having a monster year and almost taking them to the Promised Land. I would imagine Smith has considered that possibility (as has Fox, of course).

Smith is due for a big year, and he will be motivated. If you can stomach the risk, he is a true impact fantasy player who can win matchups for you single-handedly. He hung up four huge games last season and, as noted above, is capable of taking over on any given Sunday.

One final caveat about Smith’s projected stats, even if he reaches these totals; one third of the numbers will come after Week 12. Be sure to keep this in mind when assessing his value for your squad.