The Indianapolis Colts

05/17/2008 2:26 AM - Craig Davis
Over the next month or so, I'm personally going to look at each team in the NFL from a fantasy perspective and offer my thoughts and analysis as the season approaches. What you're about to read are solely my opinions and don't necessarily represent the opinions of the site, as a whole. I'm not going to go deep into each position as you might expect (we're saving that for July and August), but I'm going to analyze each team from my viewpoint and let you decide whether or not you agree.

Today, I'm talking Indy Colts. I'll continue in the AFC South for the rest of the week.


INDIANAPOLIS COLTS
2007 Record: 13-3
2008 Prediction: 12-4

2007 Offensive Rank: 5
2007 Defensive Rank: 3

DEPTH
QB: Peyton Manning
RB: Joseph Addai
WR: Reggie Wayne
WR: Marvin Harrison/Anthony Gonzalez
TE: Dallas Clark
PK: Adam Vinatieri
Top IDP Player: Gary Brackett

KEY ADDITIONS: RB Dominic Rhodes

KEY LOSSES: LB Rocky Boiman, TE Ben Utecht, G Jake Scott, LB Rob Morris, DT Anthony McFarland

2007 RECAP: The Colts were looking for a repeat of their previous Super Bowl championship but fell a bit short at home in the second round of the playoffs, losing to San Diego 28-24. The defense, which had been one of the best in the NFL in the regular season, allowed 446 yards and 28 points, turning the ball over three times and spoiling over 400 yards and three TDs from QB Peyton Manning. It seems as if those who possess the last name "Manning" are some of the most consistent fantasy players in the league. We know you can count on the younger Manning for around 3500 yards and 24 TDs every season. The elder Manning should be good for around 4000 yards and 30 TDs again this year. RB Joseph Addai didn't get the YPC average he was looking for, but his 12 TDs were more than enough to keep him in the starting role. With Marvin Harrison's injury early in the season, Reggie Wayne was called upon to "step up" and he didn't fail to deliver. Wayne ended the season with over 1400 yards and finished as the #3 WR in PPR leagues. TE Dallas Clark caught a career-high 11 TD passes.

2008 OUTLOOK: I'm going to make a few bold predictions right off the bat. First, Joseph Addai will miss at least four games due to injury. There aren't many RBs in the NFL more fragile than him. He'll still end the season with over 1000 yards, but his TD total will suffer with the "resurfacing" of RB Dominic Rhodes. Rhodes signed a one-year deal worth $650,000 after being released by the Raiders just after the draft. He worked well with then rookie Joseph Addai and should get a similar opportunity his second time around. Second, Dallas Clark will NOT have double-digit TDs. His yardage will go up because of the uncertainty of Marvin Harrison, but don't expect 11 TDs again.

Harrison is currently in the middle of a police investigation in the recent Philadelphia shooting that allegedly involved a gun registered to the receiver. Police have said all along that Harrison is not a suspect in the case, but at the same time, there has been talk that he is not as innocent as he seems. Surprisingly, there has been some recent "background" dug up on Harrison that makes him look a little "less clean" than he's appeared in the past. With or without Harrison, Reggie Wayne is dominant and should easily finish in the top 5 of all fantasy WRs, whether it's a PPR league or not.

I think one of the more intriguing things to watch, and I can't believe I'm saying this, is the play of Adam Vinatieri. He had what many consider to be an "off year" and it's definitely a wonder whether or not he'll be able to rebound in 2008. The guy's a winner, plain and simple. He has a great work ethic (for a kicker) and should have no trouble figuring out what was wrong with his game and fixing those problems. Though it doesn't matter much, I expect Vinatieri to get his head on straight and finish the season as one of the better fantasy kickers in the game.

BOTTOM LINE: This team simply has too much talent to NOT make the playoffs. As Tennessee and Houston continue to get better, winning 13 games per season isn't going to be as easy as it seemed in the past. This team still has more talent (though it's aged talent) than its division rivals, but Jacksonville continues to close the gap and the Titans and Texans aren't far behind. Indy will win the division with a 12-4 record, but they'll play a lot more close games than they did last season. See you in January.

The Houston Texans

05/15/2008 2:22 AM - Craig Davis
Over the next month or so, I'm personally going to look at each team in the NFL from a fantasy perspective and offer my thoughts and analysis as the season approaches. What you're about to read are solely my opinions and don't necessarily represent the opinions of the site, as a whole. I'm not going to go deep into each position as you might expect (we're saving that for July and August), but I'm going to analyze each team from my viewpoint and let you decide whether or not you agree.

Today, I'm talking Houston Texans. We'll continue in the AFC South for the rest of the week.

HOUSTON TEXANS
2007 Record: 8-8
2008 Prediction: 9-7

2007 Offensive Rank: 14
2007 Defensive Rank: 24

DEPTH
QB: Matt Schaub
RB: Ahman Green
WR: Andre Johnson
WR: Kevin Walter
TE: Owen Daniels
PK: Kris Brown
Top IDP Player: DeMeco Ryans

KEY ADDITIONS: RB Chris Brown, QB Quinn Gray, LB Chaun Thompson, S Nick Ferguson, LB Kevin Bentley, CB Jacque Reeves, C Chris Myers.

KEY LOSSES: S Michael Boulware, LB Danny Clark, CB Von Hutchins, C Mike Flanagan, C Steve McKinney, LB Shawn Barber, TE Jeb Putzier.

2007 RECAP: The Texans were a very solid team at home, winning six of eight contests including the season finale vs. Jacksonville. They also dominated vs. the NFC, going a healthy 3-1 vs. the NFC South. Their biggest downfall was the fact they couldn't beat anyone in their division (not counting Week 17 vs. Jacksonville). Houston suffered two losses to Tennessee and Indianapolis, not to mention a road loss at Jacksonville. To their defense, three teams from the AFC South made the playoffs and it was widely considered one of the toughest (if not THE toughest) divisions in football.

Injuries plagued this team from the beginning and they simply didn't have enough talented depth to compete. When you lose arguably a top five WR for much of the season and you combine that with the constant changing of QBs, it's hard to imagine anyone having much success. And this team's running game was a mess from the word "go". Ron Dayne was the team's leading rusher after Ahman Green suffered an injury that prevented him from playing. Dayne finished with 685 yards and 4 TDs, yet the Texans were surprisingly still able to manage an eight-win season.

2008 OUTLOOK: The Texans were a few injuries away from being a serious playoff contending team in 2007 and since they did more in the off-season to add talent than to lose it, popular opinion should find the Texans with an increased win total in 2008. Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson must stay healthy, period. Johnson is one of the most talented WRs in the league but has yet to prove what he can really do over an entire 16-game schedule. The running game received some stability in the off-season when the team brought in free-agent RB Chris Brown (Titans). If Ahman Green can't handle the workload, Brown should serve as an adequate starter with rookie Steve Slaton catching passes on third downs.

Owen Daniels is one of the better, unknown TEs in the league and gives Schaub a viable target in passing situations. He's also improved his run-blocking meaning he'll likely be on the field in most situations. And though kickers don't serve as fantasy priorities, watch for Kris Brown to finish in the top five, meaning you can likely get some small value from drafting him in one of the last few rounds.

Defensively, the Texans also suffered numerous injuries, especially in the backfield. To help address this situation they made some moves to add depth in the off-season, acquiring CB Jacque Reeves and S Nick Ferguson. Houston vowed to be a more aggressive, physical defense in 2008 and it's going to start up front. Mario Williams is going to be a Pro Bowl mainstay for years to come and will be joined in Hawaii by LB DeMeco Ryans. This defense underachieved last season, finishing as the 24th-rated unit in the league. Having very little turnover is going to help these guys gel at just the right time.

Bottom Line: This is definitely a borderline playoff team with some fantasy studs really waiting to blossom. I'd definitely love to have Schaub as my QB1 and though I'd be a little leery about having Andre Johnson as my WR1, you can't deny his talent and what he could do for you if healthy. "No thanks" on the running backs. Owen Daniels would be a nice TE2 (or possibly TE lower tier TE1)... a fine complement to any TE1 you might have on your roster.

From an IDP standpoint, Ryans and Williams can find their way onto my roster anytime, but I have a feeling about Amobi Okoye and wouldn't mind hanging onto him in a dynasty-type league. CC Brown was a borderline DB starter early last season and should improve upon his 2007 numbers.

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USER COMMENTARY (sent via email to craig@fantasyfootball.com)

"I look for the Texans to be one of the surprises of the NFL. They play in a tough division not to mention the AFC conference as a whole. If this team played in the NFC they would win 10 games next year easy. The Texans just need to continue to get better at protecting the QB and develop a consistent running game. They will win 10 games and make a real push for the play-offs for the first time in franchise history."

- J.S.
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It's Magazine Time

05/13/2008 1:23 AM - Craig Davis
Wow... I can't believe it's nearly the middle of May already. Where did the last four months go? So far this year we've seen LSU beat Ohio State to win college football's National Title; the Giants sneak up and beat the Patriots 17-14 in a Super Bowl for the ages; and Kansas' miracle comeback to beat Memphis for college basketball's crown.

Now that we've caught our breath from that, the staff members at FantasyFootball.com have been working tirelessly to pump out 144 pages of fantasy football information in 2008. This magazine will be different from our "usual" format, with more stats and more rankings/cheatsheets. Like I've previously mentioned... we requested reader feedback, and when we got it we made the necessary changes. We think you'll love this year's publication because you're going to get:

- Top 200 rankings from three different scoring formats
- Auction Dollar Values
- Offensive Position Rankings
- Rookie-Only Rankings (Including IDP)
- IDP Top 50 and Position Rankings
- A Draft Predictor Tutorial
- Projections/Player Capsules (Including IDP)
- Updated Depth Charts
- Offensive Line Analysis
- Free Agency Review
- Value Report
- Mock Draft and Summaries
- Mock Auction
- Team Reports/Profiles
- Rookie Report
- Bold Staff Predictions
- Much More

I promise you this magazine is going to be the best you've ever seen from us. We've put a lot of work into it and the results will speak for themselves. As usual, we've also landed a couple of solid interviews with some players who will have a fantasy impact in 2008. Last year we interviewed Adrian Peterson and Patrick Willis and both of them finished the season with phenomenal numbers. They also won the Offensive and Defensive Rookie of the Year Awards and will find themselves as the #1 or #2 ranked players at their respective positions this year.

Though I can't tell you who we have in store for this year's publication, I can tell you that one of them is a rookie offensive player (who WILL make an impact) and a defensive player entering his third year. He, too, is a fantasy IDP threat and will likely be a top 10 pick. The magazine will hit the newsstands on June 17th but you can reserve your copy in a few weeks right here on the website.


BENGALS SAY NO TO ALEXANDER

Apparently Rudi Johnson, Kenny Watson DeDe Dorsey, and Chris Perry are good enough for the Bengals NOT to look at acquiring another RB this off-season. It was rumored that the Bengals were going to sign free agent RB Shaun Alexander sometime in May, but those rumors were squashed by HC Marvin Lewis today. Alexander will not be wearing Bengal orange in 2008 and his opportunities are running out.


HORN WANTS OUT

Falcons WR Joe Horn said he wants the Atlanta Falcons to trade him before the teams begin training camp, according to the AJC. That's going to be tough seeing as Horn hasn't even told Falcons' front office personnel, yet he wants to make a stink in the press. Nice move.
"I want to win a Super Bowl and I want to win a Super Bowl here in Atlanta, but I don't think I can help this team win a Super Bowl sitting on the bench, waiting for third down," Horn said. Another problem Horn might be forgetting is that if he's not good enough to crack the starting lineup in Atlanta, what chance does he have to crack any starting lineup? I mean, come on... Roddy White, Laurent Robinson and Michael Jenkins!!


RAVENS VOW TO "OPEN THINGS UP"

Although they don't have a proven QB and their top three WRs combined to score five TDs last season, the Ravens (and new offensive coordinator Cam Cameron) have been rumored to be changing the offensive philosophy from a power running, I-formation offense to a three-wide base offense. This type of offense means Mark Clayton and Derrick Mason are going to have to be able to beat defenders' jams off the line of scrimmage and Demetrius Williams is going to need to be tougher over the middle. It also means Kyle Boller isn't going to be the starting QB in 2008. The best man for this job appears to be second-year QB Troy Smith as he played in a similar offense in college. Joe Flacco has the strongest arm of the three but hasn't shown the touch to run this sort of offense, especially since this is his first year.

What's more, TE Todd Heap will see lots of one-on-one coverage from opposing LBs and I'm quite certain he can beat most of them. RB Willis McGahee might not have a lead fullback to open spaces this year, but with three wides the defenses will already be opened up enough for him to really excel. It's early, but things appear to be looking up in Baltimore.


BENSON WON'T BE CUT, BUT...

In our initial RB rankings, Bears RB Cedric Benson found himself below guys like Tatum Bell, Chester Taylor and Justin Fargas. Part of the reason he's taking such abuse is the fact that he sucks. The other part has to do with his recent BWI (boating while intoxicated) arrest and the lack of support he seems to be getting from front office personnel. GM Jerry Angelo said the team won't cut Benson before training camp but he no longer is guaranteed the starting RB job and it's now an open competition between him, rookie Matt Forte', Adrian Peterson and Garrett Wolfe.
"The thing that I am most disappointed in is the fact that he put himself in a position to be the victim," Angelo said. "That's the disappointment. He's done a real fine job in the off-season, (but) obviously this makes big story lines. That's not good for business. Unfortunately we're having to deal with it, and we'll just wait and see how all the facts present themselves."

If you read between the lines, it appears Benson is only hanging around because the organization isn't 100% sold on any of the RBs they currently have on the roster. Bottom Line: Benson stinks. He won't win the job and shouldn't be on your fantasy roster.


SJAX WILL DOMINATE THIS YEAR, IF HEALTHY

You don't have to look far to find RBs who, upon entering the final year of a contract, dominate statistically looking for that big payday. This can be said for Rams RB Steven Jackson who is entering the final year of his rookie contract and expects to be rewarded by the team for what he's done on and off the field. "I think I've been a good person on and off the field," Jackson said Saturday at minicamp, "so I expect to be rewarded." Jackson also says that St. Louis "is definitely where I want to be," and, "I'm pretty sure that we'll get something done."

Jackson is coming off a season in which he spent a few weeks on the sidelines with an injury and the rest of it running from defenders who weren't blocked by the patchwork offensive line. Should Jackson stay healthy for the entire season, there's no doubt he'll post numbers similar to what we saw in 2006. With a new offensive coordinator (Al Saunders) and a healthy offense around him, Jackson will likely finish behind Torry Holt in receptions.


JONES IN BOSTON?

It's still early but there are rumors that the New England Patriots have shown some interest in free-agent RB Kevin Jones. Because he catches the ball so well, New England would love to insert him into their offensive sets on third downs. What does this mean for Kevin Faulk? Nothing, yet. A deal has not been reached between the two sides but if something were to take place in the next few weeks, Jones would be the best third-down back in all of football.


That's all for now.

First Weekend In May

05/04/2008 12:05 AM - Craig Davis

Is it me or does it feel like we just watched Eli Manning escape a "for sure" sack, hit David Tyree downfield on a long pass play and continue the drive with a TD pass to Plaxico Burress for a shocking Super Bowl win over the "invincible" New England Patriots? It's not supposed to be time for mini-camps, training camps and pre-season yet, is it?

The NFL Draft has now been a part of history for one week and I wanted to take this quick opportunity to revisit the draft in an attempt to find some teams who really helped themselves, some teams who didn't do themselves any favors and some potential fantasy gems for the upcoming 2008 season.


HIGH END WINNERS

1. Kansas City Chiefs -- With double-digit picks, how can you fail? The Chiefs filled a number of needs including massive DT Glenn Dorsey. The two "Brandons" (Albert and Flowers) have a shot to start immediately and Jamaal Charles is a perfect, complementary back to spell Larry Johnson.

2. Dallas Cowboys (Homer Pick) -- They had half as many selections as Kansas City, but what they did with those six picks really helped them fill some pressing needs. Felix Jones and Tashard Choice will battle in training camp for the main backup to Marion Barber. Grabbing CB Mike Jenkins from USF was definitely the right choice and I wouldn't be surprised to see him starting in nickel situations on opening day.

3. Pittsburgh Steelers -- It's absolutely amazing how certain draft picks fell in their lap. Sitting at #23 in the first round, the Steelers were not expecting Rashard Mendenhall still be on the board. They had no choice but to grab Willie Parker's backup and eventual starter... so that's exactly what they did. I think they were equally surprised to see Limas Sweed sitting there in the second round. With Hines Ward suffering from injuries the last few years and the fact he's not a spring chicken anymore, this was a perfect fit... kind of in the Plaxico Burress mold. Bruce Davis is a hard-hitting linebacker from UCLA who fits the Steelers' defensive mantra. Dennis Dixon is a winner who could play multiple positions and could even contribute on special teams (as a returner).


NOT TO BAD, EH?

1. Carolina Panthers -- I don't care what anyone tells you, Jonathan Stewart is going to be a solid RB in this league for many years to come. Even though Felix Jones and Mendenhall were still on the board, the Panthers stuck to their guns and drafted the RB they really wanted. He'll team up with DeAngelo Williams immediately to make a very dangerous 1-2 punch.  Massive OT Jeff Otah could be an immediate starter, telling me this team is trying to get back to their roots of being a powerful, smash-mouth offense that wants to run first. LB Dan Conner is expected to fill the shoes left vacant by the departing Dan Morgan.

2. Baltimore Ravens -- New HC John Harbaugh really wanted Matt Ryan to fall into his lap at #8, but when that didn't happen the Ravens knew they could land Joe Flacco later in the first round... so they traded down and acquired a few extra picks. RB Ray Rice might not be the prototypical NFL RB teams were looking for, but he fits in as a solid third-down back who can catch the ball like nobody's business. The Ravens also wasted no time adding youth to their defense in the third round, nabbing Notre Dame S Tom Zbikowski and stud LB Tavares Gordon from the U.

3. Washington Redskins -- I get nauseous anytime I have to say something positive about this franchise, but the Redskins made out like bandits at the skill positions. Two potential game-breaking WRs and a TE who could really challenge Chris Cooley. If I were Santana Moss and Antwaan Randle El, I'd be worried.


BIGGEST LOSERS

1. Tennessee Titans -- There's not much to say. They drafted yet another RB (Chris Johnson) and failed to meet their needs at WR... again. Enough said.

2. Cleveland Browns -- Well, it's not really their fault. They didn't have much to work with and only had five picks to play with (none on the first day). The addition of TE Martin Rucker was the best pick they made and that might not actually be a good thing. Drafting a TE might tell fans that Kellen Winslow either isn't going to get a contract extension or he's ailing worse than expected from yet another knee surgery.

3. Cincinnati Bengals -- This makes "strike two" for the teams from Ohio. The one thing the Bengals needed was a solid defensive tackle and, I'm sorry but, Patrick Sims doesn't qualify as a solid DT. I'm still baffled they didn't trade disgruntled WR Chad Johnson and acquire a butt-load of picks in the process. LB Keith Rivers will compete right away, but after that it's anyone's guess which one of these draft selections will make an immediate (or even long term) impact. Jerome Simpson? Am I missing something? I know front office personnel are raving about this guy but I'm simply not sold. I think they got better value from Andre Caldwell in the fourth round than they'll get from Simpson.

4. Jacksonville Jaguars -- I'm still scratching my head here. I'm actually a closet Jaguars fan because I like Jack Del Rio, but trading away half your draft to move up and take DE Derrick Harvey doesn't make much sense. DE Quentin Groves might turn out to be a nice value pick, but there are simply too many "ifs" to consider this a successful draft.


COULDA DONE BETTER

1. Seattle Seahawks -- "Reached" for too many players. Though Lawrence Jackson is good, he could have been had in the second round according to numerous draft gurus. TE John Carlson from Notre Dame is going to be a huge bust... just watch.

2. Oakland Raiders -- Yeah, they got Darren McFadden... but after signing Michael Bush last year and re-upping with Justin Fargas. Does that make sense? Instead of grabbing another runner they should have been focusing on taking a run-stopper!

3. Houston Texans -- Some draft experts have the Texans' draft as the worst in the league. I wouldn't go that far, but they sure didn't help themselves trading down in the first round to grab Duane Brown. They didn't have a second round pick so by the time they got to round 3 they were reaching for players like Antwaun Molden.


It's so hard to give draft grades and find the real winners and losers because honestly, we have no idea how these players are really going to do. We've seen way too many Marques Colstons and Tom Bradys to think that the only players who will succeed were drafted on the first day. However, it's fun to speculate and predict which teams helped themselves and which ones should have let someone else assist in the draft process. Let's give it a few years and revisit this blog post... I might be right on the money or I might be accused of smoking crack.

The next time I check in with another post it'll be more fantasy oriented. I'll be discussing which players from the draft have a chance to be successful in 2008 and which ones need some seasoning before they blossom. Enjoy your weekend.

Mini-Camp Schedule

05/02/2008 12:25 PM - Craig Davis
Are you ready for some football?

With the 2008 NFL Draft in the books, 30 of the NFL’s 32 teams will conduct minicamps over the next two weekends (Denver and Jacksonville will do so in June). Here is the 2008 NFL Minicamp schedule:

ARIZONA - May 2-4
ATLANTA - May 10-12; June 23-25 (voluntary)
BALTIMORE - May 1-3 (voluntary); May 9-11
BUFFALO - May 2-4 (rookies); June 11-13
CAROLINA - May 2-4
CHICAGO - May 2-4 (rookies); May 30-June 1
CINCINNATI - May 2-4 (rookies); June 12-14
CLEVELAND - May 2-4 (rookies); June 10-12
DALLAS - May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
DENVER - June 11-13
DETROIT - May 2-4 (rookies); May 20-22
GREEN BAY - May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
HOUSTON - May 9-11
INDIANAPOLIS - May 2-4 (rookies); May 16-18
JACKSONVILLE - June 6-7
KANSAS CITY - May 2-3 (rookies); June 6-8
MIAMI - May 2-4 (rookies); May 23-25 (voluntary); June 6-8
MINNESOTA - May 2-4 (rookies); June 6-8
NEW ENGLAND - May 2-4 (rookies); June 6-8
NEW ORLEANS - May 9-11 (rookies); May 30-June 1
NEW YORK GIANTS - May 9-11 (rookies); June 11-13
NEW YORK JETS - May 2-4 (rookies); June 5-7
OAKLAND - May 9-11 (rookies); June 3-5
PHILADELPHIA - May 3-5
PITTSBURGH - May 2-4
ST. LOUIS - May 9-11
SAN DIEGO - May 2-4
SAN FRANCISCO - May 2-4
SEATTLE - May 2-4
TAMPA BAY - May 2-4 (rookies); June 17-19
TENNESSEE - May 2-3 (rookies)
WASHINGTON - May 2-4

Just Mockin' Along...

04/25/2008 9:21 AM - Craig Davis
Okay, call me a slacker. With everything going on behind the scenes nowadays, I've hardly had time to offer up my first round NFL Mock Draft as I've done the last few years. I will, however, tell you that I was sold on the Dolphins taking Michigan OT Jake Long for over a month. I've done two guest appearances on sports radio talk shows and during both interviews I was asked about the #1 pick. In both instances I said the 'Phins would take Jake Long... so hopefully that will equate into a very accurate "rest of the mock draft". Below you'll see the final version of my mock draft --- assuming no draft-day trades. Obviously there will be a few but predicting those is like predicting the next team Bill Cowher will coach for.


TEAM PLAYER POS. COLLEGE NOTES
1. Miami Jake Long OT Michigan Signed, Sealed and Delivered. 
2. St. Louis Chris Long DE Virginia Along with Leonard Little, this makes a great tandem.
3. Atlanta Glenn Dorsey DT LSU Talented run-stopper who fits nicely between Abraham and Anderson
4. Oakland Vernon Gholston DE Ohio St. They'd be crazy to pass up Darren McFadden here, but filling a more pressing need makes sense.
5. Kansas City Derrick Harvey DE Florida Possibly viewed as a reach but with Allen now in Minnesota it makes perfect sense. 
6. NY Jets Darren McFadden RB Arkansas With one of the best up-and-coming offensive lines in football, the Jets must solidify the running game. 
7. New England Keith Rivers LB USC The Pats LB corps is on the wrong side of 30 and needs to take a sip from the fountain of youth.
8. Baltimore Matt Ryan QB Boston College They will be elated when Ryan falls to them at #8. Fills an apparent immediate need.
9. Cincinnati Sedrick Ellis DT USC A clear-cut steal this late in the first round. Bengals need DL help in a big way.
10. New Orleans Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie CB Tenn. St. Adding Vilma and Morgan in free agency makes this pick easy. They need help in the defensive backfield and this pick makes the most sense.
11. Buffalo Devin Thomas WR Michigan St. Any pick makes sense for the Bills as they need tons of help, but adding someone to help Lee Evans makes the most sense.
12. Denver Ryan Clady OT Boise St. Fits the mold of what Mike Shanahan wants in an offensive lineman.
13. Carolina Jeff Otah OT Pittsburgh Several holes to fill but Otah fills the most immediate need.
14. Chicago Rashard Mendenhall RB Illinois Obviously the Cedric Benson project didn't work. Mendenhall is a local kid and the Bears are completely foolish if they don't select him.
15. Detroit Jonathan Stewart RB Oregon They might trade up a few spots to get Mendenhall but if they are unsuccessful, Stewart would be a nice "consolation" prize.
16. Arizona Leodis McKelvin CB Troy McKelvin's value is higher than the #16 pick so Arizona grabs tremendous value here.
17. Kansas City Chris Williams OT Vanderbilt Chiefs acquire this pick in Jared Allen trade. Williams could be a Week 1 starter if he doesn't hold out.
18. Houston Mike Jenkins CB South Fla. The Texans have a lot of needs and I wouldn't be surprised to see OL or WR here.
19. Philadelphia Jerod Mayo LB Tennessee Eagles looking to get younger in their LB corps.
20. Tampa Bay Limas Sweed WR Texas Great fit for Jon Gruden's West Coast Offense. Bucs need a possession-type WR.
21. Washington Philip Merling DE Clemson More talented than a #21 pick but his sports hernia has affected his draft value.
22. Dallas Felix Jones RB Arkansas Adds a "speed dimension" that Dallas lacks with Marion Barber.
23. Pittsburgh Gosder Cherilus OT Boston College Could be moved to guard but will likely battle for the RT spot. Great "blue collar" player who will fit right in.
24. Tennessee James Hardy WR Indiana Imagine how good Vince Young could be if he had a competent receiver.
25. Seattle Branden Albert OL Virginia Too much hype about Albert and I'm not buying it. Good value pick at #25.
26. Jacksonville Calais Campbell DE Miami If the Jags don't land Jason Taylor in the next 24 hours Campbell is a prime selection.
27. San Diego Aqib Talib CB Kansas Raw talent who could be a steal this late. Chargers need more DB depth.
28. Dallas Malcolm Kelly WR Oklahoma Built in the same mold as Terrell Owens. Kellly has injury problems but talent is there.
29. San Francisco Lawrence Jackson DE USC Amazing that no one's talking about this guy. A definite sleeper candidate.
30. Green Bay Antoine Cason CB Arizona Could end up being the best CB in the draft. Packers need secondary help.
31. NY Giants Kenny Phillips S Miami Seems like a no-brainer now that Gibril Wilson is in Oakland.

Projecting QBs

04/23/2008 9:55 PM - Craig Davis

First things first. American Idol sucks. American voters are a joke. No longer is this a competition about being the best singer... this is a popularity contest and for the last three weeks the WORST performer has not been voted off. After watching last night's performances it was absolutely crystal clear who had the worst two performances.

Idol_Brooke_White.jpg Jason Castro (who I actually like) and Brooke White (who has laid three virtual eggs in a row) struggled through Andrew Lloyd Weber showtunes and if most of America had a clue one of those two would be gone. Don't get me wrong... I'm glad to see Castro survive and advance but there is not a sane person on earth who can tell me that either one of those two out-performed Carly Smithson (who was sent home tonight). It's a complete joke. Brooke White freaking forgot her lyrics and STARTED OVER for crying out loud!! The people voting for Brooke White after she continues to bomb week in and week out are probably the same people who actually think Hillary "I almost got shot down by sniper fire in Bosnia" Clinton would make a good leader for this country. What is this world coming to? People -- will you please wake up?


Parents, please send your kids to bed before American Idol starts taking votes so these results are not being continually skewed.

The show is down to five and I honestly can't complain about four of the five remaining artists (Brooke White is obviously the exception). Syesha Mercado had another solid performance and it was an absolute crime that she was in the bottom two tonight. I have a bad feeling that this "popularity contest" is about to get the best of her. Here's the way I rank the final five, though I wouldn't be surprised one bit if I'm completely opposite of what the rest of America (the ones who vote) thinks.

1. David Cook -- That dude is going to be a millionaire very soon.
2. David Archuleta -- Love to see the young kids performing well. I hope he gets some guidance from the right kind of people.
3. Syesha Mercado -- She has really impressed me over the last few weeks. She doesn't have enough of a fan base to last much longer, but her voice is going to land her at least one recording deal.
4. Jason Castro -- He'll definitely make an album but it's going to be for a much smaller genre. Really helps himself when he's able to sing acoustically.
5. Brooke White -- Ugh. Honestly I don't have anything good to say about her. She was good back in February and part of March, but it's just not entertaining anymore. Sorry.


PROJECTING QUARTERBACKS

I just wanted to give you a heads up that we are working hard on this year's edition of FantasyFootball.com The Magazine. We've added eight more pages of content and you'll notice (when you pick up your copy) that we listened to reader feedback from 2007 and have made this year's focus much more "numbers oriented". You wanted rankings and projections; we've added rankings and projections. You'll love it.

Speaking of projections... your's truly is handling all the offensive projections for the magazine and I began really studying the QBs earlier today. What I've found over the years of doing projections is that you can't, absolutely can't, start changing your projections when you see a player projected with more fantasy points than another player and in your mind it should be the other way around. If you've really done your homework (which I have been doing) you MUST trust your numbers. Even if Clinton Portis finishes with five more projected fantasy points than, let's say, Joseph Addai, you've got to stick with it. In your mind you might think Addai is the better fantasy back and you might even draft him ahead of Portis, but the numbers don't lie and you can't go taking away a few yards from Portis here and adding a TD to Addai there just to make your final rankings jive. If you do that, you're cheating yourself and your customers.

I put a full day's work into QBs today and was quite surprised at how the Top 10 turned out. Having said that, I didn't go back and start adjusting the numbers just so it looked good to the general public. You are paying for our services and it would simply be a crime to make the numbers match what I "THINK" they should look like. The sad part is... you'll find several services out there that do this very thing. They don't want to be "outside of the norm" so they make absolutely certain to rank the top players the exact same way they see everyone else doing it. Would it be so hard to believe Tom Brady's NOT the #1 fantasy QB this year? Why?

Not a single service in America had Tom Brady ranked as the #1 fantasy QB heading into the 2007 season, yet all he did was crap on every record in the book on the way to his best fantasy season ever. He had never thrown for more than 28 TDs in a season... EVER! He ended this year with 50 and that's AFTER he slowed down in December. But I guarantee you every single publication you read (and I mean every one of them) will have Brady projected as the #1 fantasy QB for 2008). People will be drafting Brady in the first round with all the RBs. Just watch.

Am I saying Brady isn't deserving of the #1 QB ranking? Absolutely not. If you can honestly say you believe last year was not an aberration and Randy Moss and Wes Welker will once again be able to consistently beat double-teams, it's quite possible Brady finishes with the top honor in 2008. But what "gets my goat" is when someone does projections and then realizes Brady isn't projected with the highest fantasy point total, they go back and adjust the numbers to make sure he is ranked #1.

While I can't tell you how my projections have panned out thus far, I am quite confident in them and would really love to share them with you right now. I will tell you this... Brady still gets the top nod, but not by much. Based on my hours of research, #2 was awfully close (and it's not Tony Romo). As soon as I complete my QB projections for the magazine I will check back here and maybe let you in on a few surprises. Until then, enjoy the rest of your week.

Tuesday Quick Hits

04/22/2008 1:41 PM - Craig Davis
It's hard to believe the NFL Draft is just days away and that means we are getting closer and closer to the FantasyFootball.com Magazine, FantasyFootball.com Draft Guide and FantasyFootball.com Training Camp Updates. Today has been an unusual day as we've had quite a few stories breaking at about the same time. For those of you receiving text message updates you are probably all caught up... but if not, I've put them together in this handy little blog post. Enjoy.

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1. Bengals Turn Down Redskins Offer for Ocho Cinco
It's not often you see a team turn down an offer for a first-round draft pick, let alone two of them... but that's exactly what the Cincinnati Bengals did when they declined an offer from the Washington Redskins that would have sent the team's 2008 and 2009 first-rounders to Cincy in exchange for WR Chad Johnson.

The Redskins aren't the only team that has been told "no". The Cowboys and Eagles have also inquired about Johnson's services but were quickly turned down. It appears, at least for the time being, that the Bengals are going to stand firm and absolutely refuse to trade Johnson, no matter what the offer is. Dynasty owners who have Chad Johnson have to be absolutely sick to their stomach right now with the growing chances CJ sits out the entire 2008 season.

HC Marvin Lewis added fuel to the fire with his latest comments, "I've stated our case with Chad," Lewis said. "He has a contract through 2011. He's stated without an opportunity to go to a different team and a new contract, he wasn't going to play. I think he's a man of his word and says he's not going to play, so don't play."

Right now I'm extremely worried about doing my "Chad Johnson projections" because I have absolutely no idea what's going to happen in August and September. I realize this is a frustrating situation for Bengals front office personnel and Bengals fans, but this is even more cumbersome for someone who has to figure out whether or not to project 1300 yards and 12 TDs, a big, fat goose egg, or somewhere in between. If you placed a gun to my head right now I'd say Johnson sits out the entire season and won't factor into the fantasy equation in 2008.


2. Jake Long Agrees To Terms With Dolphins
Four days before the 2008 NFL Draft commences, the Miami Dolphins (who have the #1 overall pick) and OT Jake Long have agreed to terms on a contract that will ensure him $30 million in guaranteed money with a contract that is set to last five years and could be worth as much as $57.5 million.

This deal ensures two things. A) The Dolphins are fairly certain John Beck will enter the season as the starting QB and B) The Dolphins won't be trading down as had been rumored for the last few weeks. Long is going to enter the season as the starting LT which will move Vernon Carey over to the right side (where he's more capable). The offensive line is getting better and better which is very promising for Ronnie Brown owners. Long performs equally well in run-blocking as he does pass-blocking and will also provide more confidence for second-year QB John Beck.

The biggest question is how quickly Long can adapt to Tony Sparano's blocking schemes... a big reason why the Dolphins wanted to get this deal done now rather than later (will avoid contract disputes in June/July). Mark my words... John Beck will be much better than he was last year and you'll see an overall offensive improvement from the RBs, WRs and offensive line.



3. Rucker Calls It Quits
Carolina Panthers veteran DE Mike Rucker has decided to "hang up his cleats" after nine seasons in the league. Rucker suffered a torn ACL in his left knee near the end of the 2006 season but was back on the field for the start of training camp seven months later. That injury was the biggest factor in his deciding to retire, though he did contemplate coming back for one more year.

Despite being one of the more talented defensive ends in league in the middle of his career, his skills have started to slip and he wasn't much of a factor in IDP leagues so this news isn't earth-shattering. The Panthers are expected to look at some defensive ends in the upcoming draft, but if they don't land the guy(s) they want, Charles Johnson or Stanley McClover figure to be the leading candidates to take over the starting job.


4. David Pollack Ends Short Career
Cincinnati Bengals LB David Pollack informed HC Marvin Lewis that he's going to retire from the NFL after just a few seasons in the league. Pollack, a former first-round draft pick, suffered a serious neck injury in the second game of the season against the Cleveland Browns in 2006. In part of two seasons Pollack played in 16 games recording 4½ sacks.

Pollack was expected to be a solid force in IDP leagues after his start to the 2005 season but things never panned out for the youngster and injuries to his neck finally did him in. The Bengals will continue to play in a 4-3 defensive scheme meaning the loss of Pollack isn't quite as taxing... especially with the recent news that Odell Thurman has been reinstated by the league. Thurman will compete with Ahmad Brooks for the starting MLB job but could be moved to WLB where he'd compete with Dhani Jones.


5. The Eagles Will Likely Trade CB Lito Sheppard To Move Up In The Draft
No one is exactly sure what the Philadelphia Eagles are going to do with CB Lito Sheppard, but most rumors have them trading him to a team ahead of Philly in the upcoming draft. As soon as the Eagles signed Asante Samuel in free agency it became very apparent Philly was going to deal Sheppard. The two teams ahead of Philly in the draft that desperately need help at CB are Baltimore (#8) and New Orleans (#10).

If the Eagles can consummate a deal with Baltimore to move from #19 to #8 they'd likely jump all over that because they'd be in position to lock up DT Sedrick Ellis from USC. If the Eagles can't strike a deal with Baltimore, New Orleans would be their next target and drafting WR Devin Thomas out of Michigan State would be a nice "consolation prize" for them. The Bills have been targeting Thomas at #11 and Philly could really mess things up. The only thing we know for sure is that Sheppard isn't going to be an Eagle much longer. Stay tuned.


That's it for now boys and girls... stay tuned for our final First Round Mock Draft and post-draft coverage. Have a great Tuesday.

Darrell Jackson Update

04/16/2008 10:49 PM - Craig Davis
Okay, so I'm watching the results show of American Idol as I begin to write... so please excuse me if it seems my thoughts are scattered right now. They just announced the bottom three and I hit two of the three (Syesha and Brooke). I was surprised to see Kristy Lee Cook back in the bottom three because I felt she nailed her song better than Carly did. Oh well, my prediction still stands... Brooke White is going home. We'll see.

The main subject of today's blog is Darrell Jackson's new home in Denver. With Brandon Marshall's arm hanging on by a few threads and Javon Walker making new friends in Oakland, the Broncos were looking for some more depth at WR. Jackson has amassed 487 receptions and 50 TDs during his career in the NFL which included stops in Seattle and San Francisco. Last year in Frisco, Jackson caught 46 passes for 497 yards and was often injured. When he wasn't injured he reminded me of what it was like watching Randy Moss in Oakland -- a receiver who didn't care about trying and was only in it for the money.

Jackson is far too talented to be considered a "backup WR" and there's no reason to think he won't (somewhat) resurrect his career in Denver. Simply put, the QB play is better (Denver vs. San Francisco), the offense is better designed to fit his skills, and when you play for a winner it's much easier to be motivated to perform. Remember, Jackson is just one year removed from having a 10-TD season in Seattle and given his current situation in Denver, I'm guessing he scores at least half that many in 2008. In 2006, Jackson's lowest point total was eight (in a PPR league) and scored below 10 fantasy points only twice before his injury in Week 13. He was widely considered one of the most consistent WRs in the league at that point because it appeared, for the first time in his career, that he had finally overcome his case of the "dropsies".

All signs point to Marshall being ready for the season around the middle of July, so it's going to take a miracle for Jackson to take his spot as the WR1, but seeing him beat out Brandon Stokley and Keary Colbert is easy. Jackson should, and will, win the WR2 job and be starting alongside Marshall when the season commences.

Jackson's Projected Numbers: 59 catches for 933 yards, 6 TDs


Okay... for the second straight week America got it wrong. You've got to be kidding me!! Brooke White must be a cat because she has nine lives. Her performance was clearly the worst of the night, yet she lives to see another week. Oh well, maybe I'll quit voting for her because apparently America is out to prove me wrong and make me look foolish. (Chuckle)... singing her way off the show, Cook sat next to Simon and basically serenaded him. Six more to go and you can bet we'll be blogging about it next week. Stay tuned.

Another American Idol Update...

04/16/2008 12:20 AM - Craig Davis
Well, by this time tomorrow we'll be down to six American Idol Contestants. Another solid night for the guys tells me a young lady is going home Wednesday. The problem is... I thought the same thing last week when America sent Michael Johns home. Tonight I saw two performances that, in my opinion, were below everyone else: Brooke White and Carly Smithson. If you read this column last week you saw my prediction that Brooke White was going home and I'm sure you've heard the phrase, "going back to the well again". This week, my friends, I'm going back to the well again.

Though I can easily see Carly Smithson going home, I'm going to say Brooke White's performance was bad enough that America simply can't ignore. The bottom three will be Smithson, White and Syesha Mercado... with White heading towards the exit. Stay tuned for the final results tonight!!
baseball plat 100x400
Commish Kit

Who Would You Draft First?

Marion Barber

Marshawn Lynch

Clinton Portis

Frank Gore

Larry Johnson

Ryan Grant

 
The Sports King